Research on the development strategy of Chinese culture industry

Date of publication:2008-9-1   Press: Social Science Document Press   Author:Qi Shuyu   Pages´╝Ü356  
Preface

The cultural industry is the people's creative labor, knowledge, information and image of cultural resources into with the exchange value of cultural and entertainment products and services in the industry. In modern society, with the increasing demand of culture consumption, the rapid development of knowledge, information, recreation, entertainment as the main characteristics of the culture industry, in promoting economic and social development in the increasingly prominent role. The rise of cultural industry has the profound background of the times. The second half of the twentieth Century, in the economic globalization and knowledge economy, the developed countries and regions in the economic structure and industrial adjustment hitherto unknown: general manufacturing industry in accelerating the backward countries and regions migration, city functions from production based to service based global transformation, all kinds of resources flow speed, the rise of emerging countries and the city for hundreds of years in western countries, as the world's leading financial centre began to shake, some developed countries and city development is facing great challenges. Looking for a new approach to development, to inject new impetus to the national and city development, is a major problem in some developed countries, the urgent need to address the. It is in the background, the role of culture and the cultural industry to the whole development of city and country have received particular attention. Some developed countries argue that, since the industrial revolution in Europe, the manufacturing path to drive the country and city development has come to an end; under the background of new era, modern service industry has become a major driving force for the national and city development. The core contents of the culture and the cultural industry is a modern service industry, provide the impetus for the development of modern service industry. Therefore, the development of culture and the cultural industry is considered an essential path of national and city revival. Some western scholars even believe that, through the development of culture and the cultural industry to revitalize the city, its importance and the European Renaissance has the same significance. Developed country governments and academic circles on the culture and the cultural industry, which is the core concept of innovation (creative). In the state and City revitalization as the goal, the core concept of innovation under the guide, inspire individuals create, develop new service industry (mainly refers to the integration of culture and technology services), providing the perfect service, enhance the quality of the city, to enhance the attraction and gathering ability. In practice, mainly along two clues: firstly, around a series of culture and cultural industry city revitalization implementation. Including the importance of public cultural facilities and commercial entertainment facilities construction, pay attention to the value of festival activities and exhibition industry, encouraged by the art of the creative transformation of the old city, to encourage creativity and design, attach importance to building the city brand and image, etc.. Second, to promote the integration of culture and technology, vigorously develop new media industry, to promote industrial upgrading. Development of network technology, communication technology and digital technology, breaking the boundaries between the various cultural industry, image, text, images, sound is integrated, culture and art content and form has greatly enriched, the emerging cultural industries emerge in an endless stream, the new media industry develops foreground encouraging, become a powerful driving force for economic and social development. In order to promote the development of culture and the culture industry, many countries and regions have established the development strategy and planning. In 1993, the British "creative future" as the theme, released the cross century development strategy of national art. In 1997, the British set up a special team of creative industry. Analysis of the status of the British creative industries, and in 1998 promulgated the "document" the path of creative industries, to guide the development of creative industries. The British government in order to promote the culture and cultural industry development efforts, has had the profound influence to the international community. The concept of European Council by British "creative future", put forward "creative Europe" culture strategic target, and puts forward the framework of EU cultural policy in this goal under the guidance of. In 1998, UNESCO published documents "world cultural development report" to teach the United Nations, also has absorbed the basic ideas of British art development strategy. Japan in 2000 Congress passed the "IT law" ("information technology law"), in 2001 through the "Cultural Art Promotion Law", in 2003 through the "Cultural Industry Promotion Law" ("on the promotion of the creation, protection and application of cultural industry legal case"), established to promote the development of cultural industry complete legal system the. In 2003 January, the success and influence of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi Japanese animation "spirited away" in the international film made, proposed to discover potential of Japan "". In 2003 March, the Japanese government according to the "basic law" established "information technology intellectual property strategy headquarters", former Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi personally served as minister, the music, films and other cultural industries and technology, IT industry, brand-name products such as basic industries of national economy industry. In 1998, the government of Finland established "Finland cultural industry innovation start plan" pointed out: "in the modern society, the economy in the field of cultural exchange products share is constantly increasing, cultural productionGoods exchange as a potential growth point of the national economy. Undeniably, the culture industry is a rapidly growing field, it has important potential driving force on the international and domestic economic reform." At the turn of the century, the South Korean government to make culture industry selected as one of the six core technology of Korea and ten cross age growth industry, and formulated a series of laws and regulations and planning. To meet the challenges of the twenty-first Century, the Working Group Singapore creative industries around the "vision 2012" (Vision 2012) creative industry development strategy planning ": to promote Singapore's creative economy" (Creative Industries Development Strategy:Propelling Singapore? S Creative Economy) report that, in twenty-first Century, Singapore must be changed to rely solely on the manufacturing, processing and service industry pattern. The development of creative industry as the locomotive of economic growth, promote economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, improve the international competitiveness. Introduced in twenty-first Century, the Singapore construction has become a "city of the Renaissance," global design center, global media center, to make Singapore a highly innovative and has many functions of the international city an arts and culture. In 2002, China's Taiwan region has formulated the "Challenge 2008 development plan". The plan for the first time, the cultural and creative industries in Taiwan area projects focus on the long-term development plan. That the relevant departments in Taiwan province of China, in the world into the highly industrialized era, Taiwan prior to large-scale manufacturing based production patterns, in the surrounding countries and regions under the challenge has gradually lost its advantages. Therefore, in addition to Taiwan in the direction of development, we must deepen the knowledge based economic competitiveness. The types of knowledge economic value added is highest is the creative design for the core production areas, especially the design from the art aesthetic creation. The plan that city, must to industry in local traditional industry, the primary industry economy to change this traditional development model, to find the third road, which is the cultural and creative industries. Creative industry is the deep sense, is the aesthetic level to practice level, through the aesthetic contemplation environment and industry. Two since reform and opening up, China's cultural industry development has gone through two stages. The first stage is from 1978 to late twentieth Century, the spontaneous stage for the development of cultural industry. Its basic characteristics are, under the reform of economic system, in order to meet the spiritual and cultural needs of the masses of the people increasingly, cultural fields gradually break the shackles of a planned economy, enliven. The basic trend is mainly manifested in two aspects: first, changing the planned economy period by the state arranged cultural production situation, allowing the social forces to participate in the production of cultural products. In twentieth Century 80 years later, the social forces to gradually enter the advertising industry, books, audio and video products, film and television, entertainment products production and sales. In twentieth Century 90's new media, as well as the policy of the government in the new media management relatively loose, provides more space for the social forces involved in this new field. Social forces showed great enthusiasm and vitality in the field of new media, the new media in not long time in China rapid development. Social forces to participate in cultural production demonstrated the cultural creativity, make people see the potential of cultural industries. Secondly, the reform of state-owned cultural unit mechanism, excited state cultural institutions. In the social sectors to participate in cultural production at the same time, the reform of state-owned culture units also in carefully. The first is the implementation of the "institution, enterprise management". Entering the 90's of the twentieth Century, along with our country economic system reform, the reform of state-owned culture units in advance. Although at present, the nature of state-owned culture units mostly institutions, but are in competition in the market, the commodity economic law has become a basic rule in most of the state-owned culture units must follow. The second stage is from 1995 to now, as the conscious stage for the development of cultural industry. Its essential feature is the people from the attention to cultural products to the attention of the cultural industry, cultural industry is highly valued in the strategic role in promoting economic and social development. The fundamental reason for this shift is the transformation of China's economic structure adjustment and industrial structure, and enhance the level of opening to the outside world. Late in twentieth Century 90 years, profound changes have taken place in the following five aspects of China's economic and social development. 1? To the consumption of material resources as the basic characteristics of the economic development pattern has been unable to the material relative shortage of resources is China's basic national conditions. Some of the main material resources of our country per capita are lower than the world average level: the per capita cultivated land is only equivalent to the world average of 44%, the per capita water resources accounted for about 1 / 4 of the world average level, per capita forest area is only equivalent to the world average of 17%, the majority of mineral resources per capita is less than half of the world average level. Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic growth is to rely on consume a large amount of material resources to achieve in the very great degree. In 2005, China's GDP accounted for about 4.1% of the world total, while consumption of crude oil, coal, iron ore, steel, aluminium, cement respectively of world consumption 7.4%, 31%, 30%, 27%, 25% and 40%. Over the years, excessive consumption of resources, environmental pollution, the contradiction between economic growth and resources, the environment has become increasingly prominent, has been difficult to continue the degree. To solve the increasingly prominent contradiction between economic growth and resources, environment, one of the most important way is to discover the value of cultural resources. On such a material resources in China are relatively scarce countries, the development of cultural industry is the inevitable choice that conforms to our country national condition. China has a long history, profound cultural tradition, diversified national culture; at the same time, the transition period to show the diversity, complexity and levity of modern life, but also for the development of cultural industries to provide inexhaustible, be inexhaustible cultural resources, these are the other countries can not match, but also for the development of cultural industries to create the most favorable conditions. 2? Consumption by substance consumption gradually to the material consumption and spiritualCultural consumption and change according to the international experience, the per capita GDP at $1000, the main concern of the people is the basic material needs to meet. Per capita GDP between 1000 ~ 3000 dollars, people demand into the material consumption and spiritual consumption demand and demand period. In 2006, China's per capita GDP of $2000, if calculated in accordance with the purchasing power parity, China's per capita GDP is also higher. On the whole, our country entered and material consumption and spiritual consumption demand period. According to statistics, from 1993 to 2005 12 years, educational and cultural entertainment service consumption expenditure of urban residents has increased at an annual rate of 15.5%. Per capita cultural entertainment products and services expenditure of urban residents in China in 2006 18% growth. Demand for spiritual and cultural consumption showed great potential. The rapid growth of cultural consumption demand, so as to meet the cultural needs of the people as the main features of the new economic form emerge in an endless stream. As General Secretary Hu Jintao in the January 31, 2008 National Conference on propaganda work has pointed out, a problem worth attaching importance to the current ", is with the sustained and rapid economic and social development, especially with the continuous improvement of people's living standard, China has entered a period of rapid growth of consumption culture, spiritual and cultural needs of the people has become more vigorous, culture a measure of the degree of social civilization and people's quality of life marked". The rapid growth of cultural consumption demand, a broad market for the development of cultural industries to provide. 3? Culture combined with science and technology, culture and the combination of industry, promoting the economic structure adjustment and industrial upgrading culture plays a more and more important role in promoting economic restructuring and industrial upgrading process. Specific performance in the following two aspects: first, the culture and technology. With the communication technology, network technology and digital technology as the basic characteristics of the technological revolution of the information from the information collection and transmission means reform started, transmission means change in turn stimulate the demand for the dissemination of the contents of the. In the information age, information technology and media industry, entertainment industry, culture industry each horn, promote each other. The development of information technology, greatly promote the innovation of media industry, entertainment industry means and methods, the new cultural industries are emerging; development of the media industry, entertainment industry, culture industry, also stimulated the development of information technology. The development and dissemination of the cultural content of the reform, not only become the driving force to promote the development of information technology, but also effectively promote the development of cultural industry itself. Because of this, the report of the 17th Party Congress stressed, to "use of high-tech innovation of producing cultural works, foster new cultural industry, accelerate the establishment of fast, covering a wide range of cultural dissemination system". Secondly, creative and design plays an important role to promote the consumption of product quality. At present, China has about 180 kinds of product output ranked first in the world, is recognized as the world factory. Mostly production or assembly activities of labor-intensive manufacturing industry of our country but to assume, at the lower end of the international industrial chain division of labor. In China most has the international competitiveness of the textile production as an example, China's textile production capacity, production, export volume ranked first in the world, but more than 50% of the clothing export processing, about 30% are complex sample processing for the importing country to provide trademark, style, pattern, own brands account for only about 10%. In 2004 China exported 5900000000 pairs of shoes, accounting for 60% of global sales, the average price of just $2.5, less than 1 / 10 of Italy. To change the situation, it is necessary to improve the capability of independent innovation, including technological innovation and innovation to improve the image, creative and design level, increase the added value of the products and culture, improve the quality of the products. 4? China Central City from the production of the city to a service economy dominated the city transformation in a long time, the function of city is considered to be the organization of industrial production, city construction is the main industrial construction. Service industry is lagging behind, is one important aspect of China's economic and social development is not balanced. At present, China's service industry accounts for the proportion of GDP is only about 40%, not only far below the level of developed countries over 70%, also below the developing level of about 45%. Released in 2007, "the State Council on accelerating the development of service industry a number of opinions" points out: "to accelerate the pace of structural adjustment, improve the quality and level of service industry. Municipalities directly under the central government, municipalities, provincial capital city and other conditions of the city to speed up the formation of a service-oriented industrial economy". The culture industry is a service economy is an extremely important content, especially the information creation, dissemination and various leisure, the entertainment function is an integral part of the city's service economy. The development of cultural industries to enhance the innovation function, city of perfect entertainment function, increase the city's livable degree, improve people's quality, to expand the city has important influence. 5? A measure of comprehensive national strength by mainly focus on the hard to hard power and soft power of culture and transformation of cultural soft power include many aspects. The cultural industry is an important carrier of cultural soft power and the important content, soft power competition among nations is largely a matter of cultural industry competition. In the international cultural competition, the superpower in dominant position, in the occupation of his country's culture market, seek high profits at the same time, also the output of its political ideas and cultural values, brought to his country's cultural values and cultural fashion very profound impact, while the developing countries are in the passive position. USA film production accounted for 7% of the world, occupy world film market share of 75%; USA is the world's largest publication market, is also the world's largest exporter of books; famous site in the world more than 100, including 94 in the American. America film, television, music, books, sports, entertainment, everywhere in the world. America strong, deep culture is strong. Therefore, has a dual significance for a country. The development of cultural industry: on the one hand, the competitiveness of cultural industry reflects a country's economic strength, technology level and innovation ability; on the other hand, the competitiveness of cultural industry is also a kind of cultural influence, is an important part of the national comprehensive competitiveness. The deep change of the above five aspects of the development of culture industry from spontaneity to consciousness, has become a hot social concern. Three in the development of China's cultural industry from spontaneity toConscious of the process, understanding of the cultural industry has been deepened. In the planned economy period, the cultural sector is regarded as a business unit only by the government investment and management. After the reform and opening up, through the cultural product is a product attribute, the cultural commodity production to be able to regulate the market, through the cultural institutions should talk about economic benefits, cultural production can form the industry and a series of debates, people on the production of culture industry attribute gradually formed a consensus. In 1985, the State Council forwarded the State Statistical Bureau "on the establishment of the third industry statistics report", the arts and culture as a part of the national production statistics included in item third industries, confirmed the arts with "industry" properties. In 1991, the State Council approved the "Ministry of culture on cultural cause some economic policy advice report", formally proposed the concept of "cultural economy". In 1992, the 14th Party Congress report clearly pointed out to "improve the cultural and economic policies". The same year, "the CPC Central Committee, State Council on accelerating the development of the third industry decision" to "cultural and health" as accelerating the third industry one of the key content. The significant strategic decision published the same year the comprehensive Department of the general office of the State Council's "-- the development of the third industry" one book, explicitly uses "culture industry" argument. In 1999, the State Development Planning Commission responsible person in "about the 1998 plan for national economic and social development and the implementation of the 1999 plan for national economic and social development draft report", explicitly proposed to "promote culture, education, non compulsory education and basic health care industry," the culture industry was first formally incorporated into national development plans policy vision. In 2000, the Central Committee of the CCP about "fifteen" plan "proposal" put forward, to "improve the cultural industry policies, strengthen the cultural market construction and management, promote the development of cultural industry". This is the first time the CPC Central Committee document put forward the concept of "cultural industry". In 2001, China CSRC released a new version of "the listing Corporation" in the industry classification guidance, media and cultural industry as one of the listing Corporation 13 basic industrial classification, thus ending the long about the media industry Is it right? Industry, whether the public debate. In 2002, sixteen big reports of the party, cultural construction is considered as one of the three objectives of building a well-off society. The Sixteen Party Congress report pointed out: in today's world, culture and economic and political integration, status and role in the competition of comprehensive national strength is more and more outstanding, all the comrades in the party must fully understand the strategic significance of cultural construction, promote the development and prosperity of culture. To actively develop cultural undertakings and cultural industries, deepen the reform of the cultural system. In 2003 June, the government held a cultural system reform pilot job conference. In December, the central propaganda and ideological work conference held a national. The two meeting, on China's cultural construction of "two does not meet the" basic judgement. Meeting held that, since the reform and opening up, China's cultural construction has made great achievements, but overall, the current situation of cultural construction is not satisfactory. First, we can provide the cultural products and services can not meet the need of the society. Secondly, after China's accession to WTO, China's cultural market will further open the domestic market, culture, the cultural resources of Chinese and foreign competition will be increasingly fierce. Our cultural work also can not adapt to the conditions of the times changing requirements in system and mechanism, ideas and methods. The conference proposed the cultural product has two kinds of attribute idea. For a long time, the cultural products too much emphasis on ideology, ignore the product attributes, this two meeting points out, most cultural products with ideology attribute, but also has the attributes of goods, ideology is a special commodity attribute is of a general nature. Cannot use special universal negative, nor because of the widespread denial of special. Put forward to deepen reform of the cultural system should start from changing ideas, be bold in reform of the cultural management system, idea all hinder the cultural development will resolutely break, all bound to cultural development practices and regulations will have to be changed, the defects of the system all influence the development of culture will resolutely get rid of. Puts forward the basic ideas of the reform of the cultural system. One is to increase input, conversion mechanism, enhance the vitality, improve the service as the key point, pays special attention to the reform and development of public cultural undertakings; two is the innovation of system, the conversion mechanism, market oriented, enhance vigor as the key point, pays special attention to the reform and development of business culture industry. In 2004, the sixteen plenary session of the first time proposed to the liberation and development of cultural productivity, proposed to enhance China's cultural influence in the international. In 2006, general office of the Central Committee and the general office of the State Council issued in the name of the "national" eleven five "period of cultural development plan", "Outline" system, expounds the guiding ideology and objectives of China's "eleven five" period of cultural undertakings and cultural industries development, defined the "ideas of the development of cultural industry eleven five" period. In 2007, the report of the 17th Party Congress further proposed, to promote the development and prosperity of socialist culture, enhance the cultural soft power. After a long time of exploration, the development of cultural industry concept, ideas gradually clear. In the meantime, central government departments concerned have also been adjusted, the revision and supplement to the cultural industry policies and laws and regulations. Especially after China's entry into WTO, government cultural departments according to the relevant provisions of the "WTO" clause, has revised and promulgated a series of policies and regulations. In addition, to encourage and support private capital into the cultural industries, cultural undertakings and cultural industries to provide financing support, support key cultural industry, encourage cultural products "going out" and so on, formulated relevant policies, to promote the development of the cultural industry plays a powerful role in promoting. "Eleven five" period, many provinces and cities have also developed a culture and cultural industry development planning, some city to support the cultural industry as a pillar industry. Due to the needs of economic and social development, promote and policy, China's cultural industry entered a rapid development track. Four in one industry rise at the beginning of, strengthen strategic research on the industry, rationally determine the industrial development objectives, scientific steps planning of industrial development, to establish the optimum path of industrial development, so that the formation of the best disposition between the industry's own factors, to the healthy development of the industry hasVery important significance. The development of the information industry is an example America. USA in 1993 proposed the establishment of the information highway plan, vice president Gore in 1994 March, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) conference announced the establishment of the "global information infrastructure" (GII, namely "the global information superhighway") initiative. Initiative, USA "Twentieth Century fund" (Twentieth Century Fund) convened 14 experts and scholars to the famous university and research institutions, to discuss the major issues facing America domestic and global information highway, its research results in 1995 by W? Drake editor of "information infrastructure policy America strategy" a book published, produced major effect of the book of USA information industry development. At present, China's cultural industry is also an urgent need to strengthen the strategic research. In recent years, the academic research of culture industry is very active, there have been many creative achievements. But the development of China's cultural industry overall, system research monograph is rare. The urgent need to sort out the development context of cultural industries, deepen the understanding of basic ideas and objectives of China's cultural industry development, and promote the healthy development of the cultural industry. This study from 2005 to 2020 as the period of time, on the basic ideas of the development of China's cultural industry from the overall pattern to realize the goal of building a well-off society. The research include: first, the target research. The development status of cultural industries as objectively as possible assessment, carries on the forecast to the future development of the cultural industry. Secondly, research status. Some basic problems in the development of cultural industries involved in the discussion, tries to show the basic situation of China's cultural industry development. Thirdly, research path. To explore the development of cultural industry, to seek the development train of thought of scientific and reasonable. Fourth, support system. Discussion on the need to safeguard the healthy development of culture industry condition. As the study on the development strategy of Chinese culture industry the first monograph, the coverage of the study, many problems, because of the limited space, this research will have oversight; at the same time, the cultural industry development strategy is a new subject difficult, this research also is inappropriate, please criticism, let later the second edition correction.
Summary

In recent years, the development of cultural industries, highly valued by all levels of government, has also become a hot academic research. To strengthen the strategic research of the cultural industry, grasp the development of China's cultural industry, clear thinking, the development of cultural industry, the cultural industry development goals, is a basic work to promote the development of cultural industry. "Research" development strategy China culture industry is the definitive work to conduct a comprehensive, research and Discussion on Chinese cultural industry development strategy.
Catalogue of books

Prologue / 001 introduction to industrial development and the development of cultural industry / 001 chapter 2005 to 2020 of China's cultural industry development strategy / 013 the second chapter of our country present situation of cultural industry / 031 chapter third cultural ecological environment / 056 chapter fourth culture industry structure adjustment / 085 chapter fifth of China's cultural industry development pattern / 122 chapter sixth culture industry with the development of modern city / 140 chapter seventh Cultural Industry Park / 177 chapter eighth culture industry development / 216 chapter ninth China's cultural products of "going out" / 238 chapter tenth and improve the cultural market system / 262 chapter eleventh culture and the reform of the administrative system / 295 chapter twelfth the construction of public cultural service system / 326 main references / 353 postscript / 355
Chapter excerpt

The first chapter from 2005 to 2020, China's cultural industry development strategy of cultural industry development strategy includes many aspects. This chapter from the perspective of cultural and economic focus, in 2005 and 2020 increased the length of time, four aspects of value, employment, culture industry residents educational consumption, entertainment and cultural products and services exports from the cultural industry, cultural industry on the main aspects of several specific goals and growth rate were determined, in order to realize the background of the comprehensive construction the goal of the well-off society, in the cultural and economic level, there is a possible complete grasp on the future development of the cultural industry of our country. The first section of cultural and economic targets in 2020 the total economy of China's cultural industry (the added value of cultural industry) target of 3 trillion yuan, accounting for about the same year gross domestic product (GDP) of 5%, and strive to make the cultural industry has become one of the pillar industries of our national economy. For the prediction of the total economy of China's cultural industry in the fifteen years from 2005 to 2020 and the growth of the amplitude in GDP group increased the proportion, use of the first national economic census, (end of 2004) cross section data of 31 provinces, city, autonomous region, select some variable factors which affect the culture industry economy by using multiple regression model, established the impact factors of China's cultural industry total economic output and proportion, and according to the prediction of the total economy of this model of China's cultural industry in 2010, 2015 and 2020 and the proportion of GDP may reach the level. To establish a culture industry economy model design model: influence of some variables preset economic level of China's cultural industry, including an increase in per capita GDP, the third industries accounted for the proportion of GDP, the urban population (city level), adult literacy rate, the added value of cultural industry accounted for the proportion of GDP (E1) as a result of variable cross-section data, the use of the first national economic census in 31 provinces, city, autonomous region (see Table 1 - 1), because of the relationship between variables and parameters analysis and econometric analysis. According to the national and regional data from 1 to 1, the correlation coefficient calculated for variables and these variables as dependent variables, the added value of cultural industry to increase the proportion of GDP and GDP per capita, the third industry showed a positive correlation between the proportion of GDP, and the proportion of the urban population, the coefficient correlation were 0.7791, 0.7662 and 0.6123, little correlation with adult literacy rate and GDP, the correlation coefficient was 0.1086 and 0.1560, further analysis can be drawn for each dependent variable linear relationship exists between certain. Therefore, we use SPSS 13 to construct the multiple regression model, the modeling process using stepwise regression, elimination of variables Q effects of multi collinearity, fitting equation and regression model to examine the resulting value is: in the formula 1: E1 says increased cultural industries accounted for the proportion of the value of GDP; PGDP variables per capita GDP; T says increasing the argument third industries accounted for the proportion of GDP. Model checking: from the analysis of the model results, correct the sample determination coefficient Ra22=0.7120, the linear regression on the data fitting degree is high, can explain 71% of the dependent variable information. DW statistical [DW-2]=0.037 close to accepting the null hypothesis, the test statistic F=39.3278, determine the regression model with statistical significance. According to the analysis of regression coefficient, checking the standard T distribution table, when the degree of freedom of =31, a=0.25, r=0.6828, the regression coefficient (T1, T2 and T3) values are higher than the values of T, showed that the regression coefficient is significant influence on the dependent variable. Residual residual statistics standardization in obedience to (0, 1) the standard normal distribution, two lines are very close to the original and fitting. Results show, the regression model well tested statistically (inspection the following modelLike). The main results of the two cultural industry economy forecasting premise. According to the fitting equation 1 shows, the GDP per capita increased by 1000 yuan, the added value of the proportion of GDP will be increased 0.416 of culture industry, the third industry accounts for the proportion of GDP increased 1 percentage points will make the cultural industry accounts for the proportion of GDP increased by 0.076. The increase of per capita GDP and third industrial value as a policy variable, estimate the change trend of policy variables, can carry out the economic total amount and structure of the 2010, 2015 and 2020, China's cultural industry forecast. The basic estimation. According to our country national economy gross and structure as well as the changes of population development, the basic estimate our national economy will continue to maintain a steady growth momentum, the momentum of growth of per capita GDP and the national economy is the trend of the overall operation of roughly the same, the third industry will accelerate the development, increase the value of the proportion of the average annual increase of 1.5 percentage points to third industry. Is expected during the period from 2005 to 2020 the average annual GDP growth rate will reach around 8%. In 2005, total GDP 18232100000000 yuan forecast, "eleven five" period the average annual growth of 9%, the final GDP will total more than 28 yuan, the per capita GDP of nearly 22000 yuan, converted dollars will exceed $2500, the per capita GDP in 2010 2000 more than double the goal will realize smoothly; "8% years the average growth during the 12th Five Year Plan" during the period, the final GDP will total more than 41 yuan, per capita GDP will be close to 32000 yuan, equivalent to $will exceed $3500, according to the world bank in 2004 standard, our country will be lower middle income developing countries into the upper middle income developing countries; "1035" period the average annual growth of 7.5%, CDP final will total nearly $60 yuan, per capita GDP will be more than 46000 yuan, the conversion will be far more than $5000 dollars. The basic estimation of China's national economy is expected to two years ahead of schedule to achieve the "sixteen of GDP in 2020 to more than quadrupling in 2000" target. According to the above equation, estimates of China's cultural industry, 2015 2020 2010, economic gross scale are respectively 840000000000 yuan, 1640000000000 yuan and 3050000000000 yuan, respectively accounted for 3%, 4% and 5.2% of GDP (see Table 1 - 2). By 2020 the full realization of a well-off society, the cultural industry of our country has the potential to become the pillar industry of our national economy. Suggestions on the three of total amount of target culture industry economy to achieve total economic output in 2020 of China's cultural industry (the added value of cultural industry) 3 trillion yuan, accounting for the expected goal with GDP proportion of about 5%, stage of development of China's cultural industry from now on should enter the growth acceleration, contribution in the national economy and the rise in the status of the. In the next 15 years, the economy of China's cultural industry will maintain annual growth rate in the development pattern of 14.6%, far higher than the national economy grew at an annual pace of 8%. Control objectives in stages: from 2006 to 2010 "eleven five" period, target culture industry economy is the average annual growth rate of nearly 17%, higher than the GDP growth rate (9%) of 8 percentage points, "total eleven five" the cultural industry added value can reach the scale of 840000000000 yuan, the proportion of GDP close to 3%. From 2011 to 2015 in the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, target culture industry economy is the average annual growth rate of nearly 14%, higher than the GDP average annual growth rate of 6 percentage points (8%), "the 12th Five Year Plan" period of cultural industrial added value to achieve 1650000000000 yuan of the scale, the proportion of GDP close to 4%. From 2015 to 2020 "1035" period, target culture industry economy is the average annual growth rate of nearly 13%, higher than the GDP average annual growth rate of 5.5 percentage points (7.5%), "the overall 1035" final cultural industrial added value to achieve the scale of 3050000000000 yuan, the proportion of GDP accounted for more than 5%. Target second day employment goal in 2020 of China's cultural industry in total employment for 46000000 people, accounted for the national economy to full employment accounted for about 5.3% of the total, the employment of third industry number about 11.4%, accounting for about 10.3% of urban employment number, the culture industry becomes one of the main channel of China's national economy to absorb employment. For the determination of total employment in scientific and cultural industries in China's growth in the 2005 to 2020 in the 15 years and the relevant specific gravity (employment culture industry accounted for third of the total industry employment proportion, accounting for the proportion of city employment) rise, research group according to the cultural industries in developed countries to provide employment situation and the actual situation in our country, the use of the first national economic census in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in 2004 the section data, select some variable factors which affect the total cultural industry employment, confirm the influence factors of China's cultural industry employment amount and the proportion of using multiple regression model, total employment and the proportion according to the model results to our country the cultural industry in 2010, 2015 and 2020 may reach the level forecast. Model design model to predict the total cultural industry employment: preset affect the employment level of culture industry variables, these variables include GDP per capita, employment proportion of the third industry, the proportion of urban population, adult literacy rate and total employment, the culture industry is industry personnel proportion over the same period of employment as the dependent variable, using cross section data the first national economic census in 31 provinces, city, autonomous region, analysis of variables and the dependent relationship between variables and econometric analysis. According to table 1 - 3 data, calculate the correlation coefficient of variables for employment culture industry and these variables, was highly correlated between cultural industry accounts for the proportion of GDP and GDP per capita, employment in the third industry structure and the proportion of the urban population, the coefficient correlation were 0.9276, 0.7994 and 0.8139, and the adult literacy rateLittle correlation and employment in total, only 0.2471 and -0.0493, there was a linear relationship between the dependent variable in the. Therefore, constructed using SPSS13.0 multivariate regression model, the modeling process using stepwise regression method, the influence of multiple elimination of variables collinearity, fitting equations obtained employment model and the test value is: in the formula 2: E2 dependent variable culture industry employment over the same period the proportion of total employment PGDP represent the GDP per capita. The main results a total of two cultural industry employment forecasting premise. According to the above formula fitting equation 2 shows, the GDP per capita increased by 1000 yuan, will be the proportion of employment culture industry of the total employment increased by 1.16 percentage points. The per capita GDP as a policy variable, the estimated policy variables and factors were compared after the change trend, can carry out employment amount and structure of China's 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020, China's cultural industry forecast. The basic estimation. According to the change trend of China's total employment and the basic structure, estimated to total employment in our country and city development with the acceleration of the third industry in our country urbanization increased year by year, will continue to maintain the momentum of steady growth, the third industry employment proportion and urban workers accounted for an average annual increase of 1 percentage points. Analysis and comparison of 1990 ~ 2005 these fifteen years, China's total employment trends in average 1.06% annual growth, make the time series model of China's total employment in total employment: =64580.46+754.51 * T. The growth trend of total employment years an average of 7550000 people on the economy of our country future employment total national estimate of 15 years: in 2010 the total "eleven five" final employment for 796710000 people, in 2015 the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period the total employment for 834430000 people, to 2020 the total "1035" final employment for 872160000 people. According to the fitting equation 2, calculate the total employment in China's cultural industry in 2020 2010, 2015, respectively 19000000, 30000000 and 46000000, respectively, accounted for 2.4% of the total national economy and employment, 3.6% and 5.3%, accounted for the proportion of the third industry are respectively 6.6%, 8.7% and 11.4%, respectively, accounted for the proportion of urban employment for 5.8%, 7.8% and 10.4% (see Table 1 - 4). Estimated that by 2020, the cultural industry will become one of the main channel of China's national economy to absorb employment. Three the cultural industry to achieve total employment policy recommendations for the same period of national economy employment numbers for the realization of total employment in 2020 of China's cultural industry reached 46000000 people, about 5.28%, accounting for the employment of third industry, accounting for about 11.4% of urban employment number about 10.4%, the culture industry has become one of the national economy, the main channel for employment I in China, plays a target more and more important role in expanding employment, in the next 15 years, the total employment in China's cultural industry will maintain annual growth rate in the development pattern of 9.7%, far higher than the national economy speed industry total of 1% annual growth. Control objectives in stages: from 2006 to 2010 "eleven five" period, the total control target of cultural industry employment is the average annual growth rate of nearly 10.6%, "eleven five" final culture industry's total employment scale to reach 19000000 people, 2.4%, nearly all of the employees accounted for the proportion of the third industry, 6.6% urban employment personnel accounted for the proportion of 5.8%. From 2011 to 2015 in the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, the total control target of cultural industry employment is the average annual growth rate of nearly 9.5%, "1025" period of cultural industry total employment scale to reach 30000000 people, nearly all of the employees of 3.6%, accounting for third of industry than the weight is 8.7%, proportion of urban employment personnel for 7.8%. 2016 ~ 2020 "1035" period, the total target culture industry employment is the average annual growth rate of nearly 8.9%, "1035" final culture industry's total employment scale to reach 46000000 people, nearly all of the employees of 5.3%, accounting for the proportion of the third industry, accounting for 11.4% of urban employment accounted for 10.4%. Urban and rural residents consumption in China in 2020 third quarter target of cultural products and services consumption goals of rural cultural entertainment products and services per capita expenditure 750 yuan, accounting for 28% of consumer spending; urban culture and entertainment products and services spending of 1480 yuan, accounting for 20% of consumer spending. According to the comprehensive implementation of the 2020 goal of well-off society, referring to the per capita net income of rural households and urban residents per capita disposable income target value realization degree, from the main influencing factors of culture consumption of urban and rural residents (income, living standards and demand level) to quantitative analysis of urban and rural residents, and cultural and educational entertainment consumption expenditure and the total household consumption expenditure the proportion to calculate and analysis. Variable factors of cultural consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents, model design of a preset effects of education and entertainment expenditure of urban and rural residents, such as per capita GDP, urban per capita disposable income of urban households, family Engel coefficient of rural residents, such as per capita GDP, per capita net income of rural households, family Engel coefficient of rural residents, according to the 1985 ~ 2005 years are calculated out of the city, township because of correlation coefficients between the variables and parameters, variables, and ultimately determine the impact of the dependent variable. Considering the influence of cultural consumption demand of income level, living standard and demand level, income and expenditure structure to establish the model of cultural consumption, China's urban and rural residents in the next 15 years to analyze and predict the demand of culture consumption. Using SPSS 1985 to the data in 2004 two yuan asked the regression model is constructed on 13, methods used in the process of all regression, finally get the fitting equation of urban and rural consumption model and test value. The main results predict two urban and rural cultural consumption expenditureMeasuring conditions. The families of urban and rural residents per capita disposable income (per capita net income of rural households and rural households) and the Engel coefficient as a policy variable, estimate the change trend of policy variables, can be in China respectively 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 urban per capita paper teach entertainment products and services spending and cultural and educational entertainment services the total consumption expenditure proportion, an important indicator of rural per capita educational entertainment products and services consumption expenditure accounted for the proportion of consumption of urban and rural culture can reflect the forecast. The basic estimation. According to the development and changes in China in 2004 1985 to change the income of urban and rural residents and the Engel coefficient of the trend, especially in the 2000 to 2005 years, the per capita net income of rural households of 7.63% years of growth, the residents of family Engel coefficient of five year decline of 3.6 percentage points, urban residents per capita disposable annual growth of 10.81%, residents family Engel coefficient reduced by five years current, 2.7 percentage points of the basic estimates, China's urban and rural households per capita income will continue to maintain the momentum of steady growth in the next 15 years, the average annual Engel coefficient decreased 0.5 ~ 0.7 percentage points. In 2005, urban residents per capita disposable income of 10493 yuan, the Engel coefficient of 36.7% computing, "eleven five" period the average annual growth of 9%, the per capita disposable income will reach 16145 yuan, the Engel coefficient of 34.2%; "8% years the average growth of the Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, the per capita disposable income will reach 23722 yuan, the Engel coefficient of 31.7%; "1035" period the average annual growth of 7%, the per capita disposable income will reach 33271 yuan, the Engel coefficient of 29.2%. The per capita net income of rural households in 2005 3255 yuan, the Engel coefficient of 45.5% computing, "eleven five" period the average annual growth of 8%, the per capita net income will reach the end of 4783 yuan, the Engel coefficient decreased to 42%; the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period the average annual growth of 7%, the per capita net income will reach 6708 yuan, Engel coefficient decreased as the 38.5%; "1035" period the average annual growth of 5%, the per capita net income will reach the end of 8561 yuan, the Engel coefficient decreased to 35%. To achieve a goal when the lifestyle of urban and rural residents will enter the well-off and rich stage. According to the formula of 3 ~ 6, respectively, to calculate the per capita cultural consumption expenditure and the proportion of China's urban and rural residents in 2010, 2015 and 2020, the urban cultural entertainment service expenditures were 732 yuan, 1065 yuan and 1484 yuan, total consumption expenditure accounted for 16%, 18% and 20%. The rural cultural and educational entertainment products and services per capita expenditures were 416 yuan, 585 yuan and 748 yuan, total consumption expenditure accounted for 17%, 23% and 28% (see Table 1 - 6). The fourth section export target increase in China's cultural products and services exports efforts, make it at least with the simultaneous development of China's total exports of other goods and services, in 2020 at the international cultural market share and influence have relatively substantially growth and improve the expected goal, and China's foreign trade import and export volume of total world trade the proportion of the total import V1 (roughly estimated imports accounted for 10%, exports accounted for 12%), close to developed countries cultural products (services) for all goods (services) level, the proportion of total exports.
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