The light of thought -- the lecture at Peking University (Fourth Series)

Date of publication:2001-07   Press: New World Press   Author:The pool   Pages:325   Words:190000  
Summary

This book is "in Beijing University Lecture Series" fourth series, the articles are all experts, professors, scholars, celebrities in the wonderful speech at Peking university. The article explain profound theories in simple language, concise and simple, both rich, thought-provoking, and inspiring and life wisdom. This paper fully inclusive and equitable, collection is the essence of wisdom, thought. Risheng in vanity fair wind today society, for all "for people's study, efforts to self", the lecture came the sound of thought is truly worthy of careful taste and carefully understand. This book includes the interpretation of the new economy China Cheng Siwei Li Yining contemporary economic hot spots in the turn of the century, Yan Zhijie China economics review and prospect, Yin Baoyun modernization and Chinese economic reform, Jia Qingguo Bush new government policy toward China and Sino US relations, Xia Xue Luan westward journey, postmodernism and new-new generation of the "Cultural Revolution" of Xu Youyu in the West Lv Qixiang, "a dream of Red Mansions" and Chinese modern women's cultural image, Wang Yiqiu twenty-first Century North adults, Hu Yong computer and network is a kind of what kind of culture, Sun Xiaoli, Guan Shijie China digital earth, digital information technology and culture, He Weifang justice. -- from judge change robe on judicial philosophy, Ma Yinan marriage law modifications in the women's issues.
Catalogue of books

Cheng Siwei Li Yining interpretation of the new economy of contemporary China economic problems in Yan Zhijie at the turn of the century Chinese economics review and Prospect Yin Baoyun modernization and China economic reform Jia Qingguo Bush new government policy toward China and Sino US relations Xia Xueluan westward journey, postmodernism and new-new generation Xu Youyu west of the "Cultural Revolution" of Lv Qixiang in "a dream of Red Mansions" and Chinese modern women cultural image of Wang Yiqiu in twenty-first Century the Hu Yong computer and network is a kind of what kind of culture Sun Xiaoli digital earth and digital China Guan Shi Jie information technology and Cultural Construction -- he just up from the change of judicial philosophy and Ma Yinan marriage law in the women's issue
Chapter excerpt

Digest fourth, international financial market. Virtual capital can be traded across borders, if traced transnational trade, in the second half of last century in some countries have issued bond, like USA railways, like the British, French, German British bonds issued. Transnational trade really the main is the beginning of this century 20 time, the large-scale transnational securities investment. But because the British economy 30 years of depression and the Second World War, so the internationalization speed is not fast, until after the Second World War, in the promotion of general agreement on tariff agreement and Brinton forest was gradually formed a huge international financial market. It can flow of industry in the international scope and guide funds to the revenue better, can improve the efficiency of the use of funds, but also the formation of a new financial market and foreign exchange market, the funds will flow to the foreign exchange market, futures trading is also increasingly virtual. Before people buy futures is to avoid price risk, the actual later futures whether domestic or foreign are virtual. Not really want to buy such a thing, I buy beans, not to really want to soybean, I could not finish eating, it is only a kind of means such as investment, the purchase of futures as a speculative means. Since 60 time, stock, bond appeared option transaction, even the stock index futures trading mode also appeared in Chicago, 1973 America appeared the first option market. Now it should be said that the internationalization of financial market development to the international financial integration, that is to say between the domestic financial market and international financial markets more closely linked, mutual influence is growing. With the dollar off the gold standard and lead to the formation of the floating exchange rate system, financial innovation enhancement, rapid advances in information technology, financial liberalization degree increases and the development of economic globalization, the flow velocity and the virtual capital in financial markets more quickly, traffic is also growing, thus increasing the size of the virtual economy at the same time, the international financial market has reached a systemic point. You want to the East Asian financial crisis, from a liquidity crisis in Thailand has been spread so wide, so do not in general. Then how about the scale of fictitious economy? Since 80 years the average world economic growth rate of around 3%, the average annual rate of 5% growth of international trade, the international flow of capital growth rate of 25%, the total increase in global stock. In 1997 the world of virtual economy total to $140, the world of domestic GDP is the sum of $28.2, the virtual economy is five times the real economy. The $140 it is probably the case, add up to the stock market and bond turnover is roughly 60 trillion trillion; 80 is probably throughout the financial derivatives and the counter transactions, one might ask is where? This is very simple, you have a look of finance has a multiplier effect, a multiplier effect. The average flow of the virtual economy every day all over the world are now reached more than $1.5, the data is $2, about 50 times the world average actual trade. That is to say the whole world capital flows to the real trade flow, for only 2%, 98% of the money is in the flow of money. It can be expected with the development of electronic commerce and electronic money, the scale of fictitious economy will continue to expand. Virtual economic system has 5 characteristics according to my research. First, the complexity is intelligent, with a certain degree of. Last year I devoted to you about complexity science. We say that the virtual economy system is a complex system, it is the main component of natural and legal persons, including investors, investors, financial intermediaries. They are virtual economic activities according to certain rules in financial market. Although everyone has his own understanding of the prospects of environment and development as well as the intended target and independently make decisions within each latch, but the influence that decision can not be affected by the decisions of others. So although in the system, because of the nonlinear interactions between components can produce chaotic phenomenon, but because of the self-organization of the system but also presents interesting and stability of certain, I for one of the most realistic examples. I do not know if you do you want to buy the stock, if I buy a stock, he bought a company's stock, 25 yuan to buy, yesterday rose30 yuan. This morning a fall to 29 yuan, he hesitated, the stock should I leave. To throw or not throw this is his own decision, he has two ideas, I buy 25 yuan, I can wait, maybe it will be up close, and so it fell to 27 yuan is not late, this is an idea. Another idea, the stock can not let it continue to fall, I'm throwing although suffer than yesterday, but I can make money, tomorrow again fell into the 27 yuan I earn less. These two ideas, he didn't know what to do, ask old Cao, how your stock? Old Cao said I buy 24 yuan, 29 yuan now it's still early, I do not sell. Huang said that the stock belonging to high-tech, although a fall down I also like. Asked Lee aunt, she said what I sell it, I do business with a small capital stocks, buy 26 yuan, it fell to 27 yuan I earn a yuan, what I worry now. Exactly three people you meet will not sell, you become the fourth person, the others ask you again, you can't sell. If the history is to continue at this point, the end result of this stock really can go up, because everyone can hold, optimistic about the stock. Three people in turn you ask if it is to be sold, wanted to sell 27 yuan, it may also keep. You also throw, and everybody behind the words, the stock is really might drop. That is to say everyone's decision is independent of each other, but will have an impact, in a historic opportunity, it will form a self-organizing, form a kind of trend. So this matter I in complex science said, deterministic system has the intrinsic randomness, has certain inherent stochastic system. Prediction is always uncertainty, because of its randomness. But there may be directional things in a certain period, it is the role of self-organization, inner certainty effect. Second, high risk. We know that a rational investor always symmetric should pay attention to risk and return, any rational investors would consider this point. For example I and another gambling, dice, he pressed a piece of money six. I say you pressed the right I'll give you three dollars. He does not work of course, out of the possibility of six points is 1/6, I paid him three yuan. But when you return is very large, this pattern will change, the gambler psychology, what do you mean? Although know the risk and return asymmetry, but betting on it, may have to make a lot of money, do not touch on it. I speak one of the most obvious example, buy lottery risk and return is asymmetric, if the symmetry that sell lottery people's wages, preparation of publicity costs come from where? Certainly the wool in the sheep, sell lottery unit also need money. Why would anyone want to buy? Because of its return is very big, once the return is very large, and its investment is relatively small. In holding the car home, not as was stolen by a thief, psychological balance. So the gambler psychology. Of course, I must declare, not buy welfare lottery, welfare lottery mentality is I in support of welfare. Because of its high return, so people are willing to take the risk, which is why virtual economy can grow, if is rational, the virtual economic development can not be. Because the risk difficult to predict, and even hard to bear, but it has the potential to bring high returns. Third, parasitic. Fictitious economy is generated by the entity economy and rely on the real economy, virtual economy can be said to be in the economy system. The risk in the real economy, such as the product backlog, the bankruptcy of the enterprise and so on, will be transferred to the virtual system has become the Bank of bad debts. So the virtual economy can not be divorced from the real economy and the existence of. If we are to get the virtual economy it is impossible. In finance has become the core of economy today, the real economy can not be divorced from the virtual economy to run, so if we take the real economy as the economic system hardware, then the virtual economy can be said to be in the process of economic system, we know that if there is no hardware software is not running, it is, this it is parasitic.......
Media attention and comments

The lecture really cool / Li. This solved my hard not to listen to lectures or North better than nothing to stay strong hope recovery more wonderful make persistent efforts to listen to the voice / Rowling University, like to listen to a teacher named Bai Yiyu lecture. He is a little known scholars, experienced ups and downs, with profound knowledge is willing to dull life, as well as our love. White teacher always lectures, his subject matter far apart from each other, with the appreciation of literary work, political events, as boundless as the sea and sky, sparkling discourse, so that we benefit from non shallow. When the teacher lectures, to advance to the seats, to the late can only stand in the aisle or window to listen to, so I often forgot to eat, hungry for a few hours of lectures, hear the wonderful forget the protests of the stomach, desperately applause. Remember the eve of graduation, he gave us a lecture, content is probably life, family, love and so on, talked about the emotion, his voice choking can not be written, under listening we associate with their own problems, can not help but also tears wet the collar sleeve. I didn't hear the lecture at Peking university. At that time the primary school teachers seldom like white people like, not to attract celebrity to speech. This is not a kind of regret. The lecture is Chinese come first on the list, in the North do lectures were certainly is a leader in reality. Their talk is no lack of profound academic dialogue, and often heated debate between teachers and students. So in recent years came to Peking University lecture "students swim" is increasing, which has achieve success and win recognition, driving to; have to walk, eating bread while listening. Whether they are in which class, but also whether they come or seek knowledge and truth, to listen to the sound of thought, are willing to sideways in the small classroom, feelings and the humanities essence. Today is not only the school conditions, geographical barrier to visit the north to hear some wonderful lectures become more impossible. But with the hands of the "lecture" in Beijing to experience this feeling. Fortunately, the editor know that people like me need, the editor maintains the original site, which can not be personally on the scene, the readers can imagine from between the lines "All seats are occupied., climb the window stands" lecture event, also get some thought-provokingThe deep doctrinal and inspiring wisdom of life. Actually from the deep voice is not gone with the wind. Whether you listen to see how much depth. In the increasingly vanity of the real world, you can demand for material things indifferent, but not sideways to the serious thought sound taste. As Mr Chen Yinque says: "the scholar in the scholarly research, cover will be off to the common meaning of the shackles of heart, the truth because to carry forward. "
Editor recommends

The sound of first-class universities thought, a famous scholar of wisdom! "In the lecture series" was founded in 1998 the 100 years, "people's Daily" "Southern Weekend" "reader" "China reading newspaper" "China Youth Daily" "sina.com.cn" hundreds of other media reports or reproduced, was named the most popular thought reading, the Ministry of education, the Central Committee of Communist Youth League strongly recommended, by all readers love. The articles are experts, professors, scholars, celebrities in the wonderful speech at Peking university. The article explain profound theories in simple language, simple and plain, both rich, thought-provoking, and inspiring wisdom of life. This book is "in Beijing University Lecture Series" fourth series.
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